83rd Academy Award Predictions

Okay, here it is, Oscar day. Jana and I did a pretty great job of getting out and seeing as many of the nominated films as we could, especially considering Jana went away to the Philippines for her brother's wedding. We saw 9 of the 10 Best Picture nominees, with 127 Hours being the only one we didn't make it to.

I'm trying to avoid discovering the consensus this year, so as much as possible I haven't read any Oscar predictions leading up to this post. Having said that, it's impossible to avoid the predictions of the big awards, and also impossible to avoid all the multitudes of awards given out over the last few weeks.

Best Actor - I think this is pretty much a lock for Colin Firth, and well-deserved. He's really developed into a great actor over the last few years. I've only seen 3 of these performances, but it honestly seems like a bit of a weak category (it's maybe a bit of a weak year, generally), so I think Colin Firth has this wrapped up.

Best Supporting Actor - I've seen all of these, and this is a stronger group than the Best Actor category. If I was solely choosing based on merit, and not making predictions, it would be a close call between Geoffrey Rush and John Hawkes. But I'm making predictions, and based on all the preceding awards, I think Christian Bale will win.

Best Actress - Again I only saw 3. I don't really understand why Annette Bening was nominated, to be honest. I thought Julianne Moore was far better. I thought Jennifer Lawrence was very excellent, but I'm predicting that the winner will be Natalie Portman.

Best Supporting Actress - I saw 4, but did not see Animal Kingdom. Hailee Steinfeld was really more of a lead actress, wasn't she? I don't think she'll win, though, her role was mostly just good writing. This is actually a tough call. Melissa Leo won the Golden Globe, but if a supporting actress from The Fighter is going to win, I think it should be Amy Adams. I was very impressed by her role. Could Helena Bonham-Carter pull it off? I don't quite think so. I think I'll go with my favourite, and choose Amy Adams.

Best Animated Feature - Well, the only one I've seen here is Toy Story 3, and I'm picking it as the winner. It was honestly one of my favourite movies of the year, and it's the only one of these three that was nominated for Best Picture. Plus, Pixar has won this the last 3 straight years.

Best Art Direction - This is one of those categories that a sweeping picture tends to pick up, but I don't think there will be a runaway winner this year. This could actually go to Alice in Wonderland, because it did have fantastic art direction, but the overall low quality of the film might be a serious detractor. I'm going to stand by my original prediction and go with Inception. (I saw all of these films, by the way).

Best Cinematography - Hmm, I saw all of these, too. True Grit did not impress me quite enough to steal this away from Black Swan, although it would come in second.

Best Costume Design - I did not see The Tempest or I Am Love, which makes this a really hard one to call. Rather than go out on a limb and pick something I didn't see (and probably a lot of Academy members didn't either) I'm going to play it safe and pick The King's Speech.

Best Director - Okay, I did see all of these. I'm going to make a bold move and pick a different winner for this category and for the Best Picture category. As much as I really liked Black Swan, I'm going to go with the director that took what could have been a bland pseudo-documentary and made it one of the most exciting films of the year: David Fincher for The Social Network.

Best Documentary - Now this is a wild stab in the dark, because I didn't see any of them. Based on the fact that it was recommended to me a few times when it was playing in Edmonton by friends whose taste I trust, I'm going to pick Inside Job.

Best Documentary Short - Okay, time to pick the most Oscar-worthy topic. Killing in the Name it is.

Best Film Editing - I am notoriously (in my own mind) terrible and predicting this category. And it doesn't help when I only saw 4 of the nominees. I'm just going to stick with my gut and predict Black Swan.

Best Foreign Language Film - Well, I saw Incendies, and was pretty impressed. Biutiful, on the other hand, has Javier Bardem, and he got a Best Actor nomination for it. I know nothing about the other 3. I'll root for the Canadians and pick Incendies.

Best Makeup - I did not see any of these 3 films. That's odd. None is nominated for anything else, either. I guess I'll go with Barney's Version.

Best Original Score - I saw 3 of these, and I'm having a hard time thinking of the music in each. It seems to me, though, that The King's Speech probably had a good score.

Best Original Song - I only saw Toy Story 3, and I can't think of this song. I really haven't heard any of them. I'll go with Coming Home from Country Strong.

Best Picture - Like I said, we got up to 9/10, only missing 127 Hours. This would be my personal ranking: 1 - Black Swan; 2 - Toy Story 3; 3 - The Social Network; 4 - Winter's Bone; 5 - The King's Speech; 6 - Inception; 7 - True Grit; 8 - The Fighter; 9 - The Kids Are All Right. That's not really fair, though, because I did like all of them. There were none I really disliked, but I think several of these will fade into oblivion. It's kind of a weak year. I think the winner will be The King's Speech. It's very formulaic (an adult version of The Karate Kid), but it's quite moving and well-acted.

Best Animated Short - I'll pick Day & Night, the only one I've seen.

Best Live Action Short - Here I will pick The Crush.

Best Sound Editing - I missed Tron and Unstoppable. My prediction is Inception.

Best Sound Mixing - I saw all of them except for Salt. I will choose True Grit.

Best Visual Effects - I didn't see Hereafter or Iron Man 2, but I think that the safe bet is Inception.

Best Adapted Screenplay - I saw 4/5, missing 127 Hours. This is a tough one for me. I think it's between Winter's Bone and The Social Network. I think I'll pick The Social Network. That was a good script.

Best Original Screenplay - Again, only 4/5, missing Another Year. I think I'll go with The King's Speech, since I'm predicting that it wins Best Picture.

So, here's my summary:

Best Actor: Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale - The Fighter
Best Actress: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams - The Fighter
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Art Direction: Inception
Best Cinematography: Black Swan
Best Costume Design: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher - The Social Network
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Documentary Short: Killing in the Name
Best Film Editing: Black Swan
Best Foreign Language Film: Incendies
Best Makeup: Barney's Version
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Original Song: "Coming Home" - Country Strong
Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Short Film - Animated: Day & Night
Best Short Film - Live Action: The Crush
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Sound Mixing: True Grit
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech